An Unobstructed View

Presented by Dale Sims

2007 Off-season player movement

The 2007 football season has been underway for a bit now and there have been some developments of interest.  This free agency period has been much quieter than the same period last year.  The reasons for this are fairly clear; all 109 million of them (the new salary cap number).  Last season saw more movement than any other previous period of free agency. This season should see considerably less.

Most teams had plenty of money; as a result they could afford to resign their quality players so fewer difference makers were available.  The result of this reduction of “cap causalities” has led to some players being ridiculously overpaid and the long term effects of that could be a real problem in the future.  (Derrick Dockery is a somewhat better than average guard but was paid like he was one of the best guards in the NFL; this is bound to have repercussions around the league.)

There were several changes in head coaches again this season; after last years purges you might have expected things to be quieter.  These are likely to result in some significant changes in personnel in Atlanta, Miami, and perhaps Arizona, but likely not with contenders like Dallas and San Diego where the coaching changes were carefully structured to minimize changes in the existing team philosophies.

Another thing that is likely to affect both the remainder of the free agency period and the draft are the expected changes in the discipline policy from the league.  The new rules will implement much quicker and more severe penalties for off field incidents.  As a result players with questionable history who will be subject to multiple game suspensions will lose value and likely see their contracts structured more restrictively, not necessarily a bad thing.

Trends in Free Agency - AFC

The New England Patriots have been the most active team in free agency to this point and also may have been the most successful to date.  The early signing of Adalius Thomas helped address a critical need of the Patriots.  Their linebacker corps, the key to their 4-3 defense, has aged and slowed down the past couple of years as witnessed in how they wore down against the Colts in the playoffs.  Further they managed to sign him at what looks to be a bargain price in this market.

The Patriots, as is typical, have made a number of small moves in the free agent market that seem likely to payoff.  The signing of Donte Stallworth though seems a bit of a risk though one with great reward if it works out.  Even though he signed essentially a one-year contract he does not appear to be a great fit for this offense which emphasizes accurate route running.  The deal for Wes Welker (assuming the trade stands) looks to be the better acquisition; in addition to his receiving skills he will likely free Maroney from his role as a returner.

Denver has made some interesting moves also, the signing of Dre’ Bly certainly gives them the best set of cornerbacks in the NFL but fails to address their essential problem in pass defense which is lack of a rush.  Even the best defensive backs can be beaten if your defensive line is not getting to the quarterback.  The more interesting thing is that the nature of some of their acquisitions suggests they will be giving the passing game more emphasis this season; by implication they are obviously satisfied with the development of Cutler last season.

Cleveland is desperately trying to improve their offensive line in free agency; how that is going to workout is unclear.  The Browns are looking like a team trying to turn it around this season but they have a lot to accomplish if they are going to do significantly better this season in what rates to be one of the tougher divisions in the AFC.  One thing for sure they are going to have to do a better job of getting, and staying, healthy.

Buffalo seems to be demonstrating a bit of a split personality; they have made some good moves to shore up their offense line.  On the other hand they let go of Nate Clements, a solid contributor though beyond their budget, lost Fletcher-Baker, and they are rumored to be shopping Takeo Spikes.  (The loss of McGahee is less significant than it appears as Anthony Thomas was been a serviceable running back for Jauron when they were together in Chicago and filled in well when called upon last season.)

Trends in Free Agency – NFC

Atlanta has been busy in free agency and is moving players around in anticipation of changes in the coaching philosophy.  They look to be going to a power blocking scheme with their offensive line which presents some potential issues at running back as neither Dunn nor Norwood are prototypical power backs.  Using bigger linemen also has implications for Vick; at barely six feet tall he may find passing lanes harder to come by through the trees.

The trade of Schaub represents some risk on the part of Atlanta but will allow them to acquire at least one player in each of the next two drafts who they can expect to have an immediate impact.  The swap of first round picks probably will not have a great impact on which players these two teams end up with.  Being traded to be the quarterback behind the Texan’s offensive line may not be a wonderful career move for Schaub though.

San Francisco has been busy also making a big splash signing corner Nate Clements and safety Michael Lewis on the first day of free agency.  Both players will immediately upgrade the secondary and the twenty-fifth rated pass defense.  They have added linebacker depth and look to have generally improved that unit.  They are still in dire need of adding one or two offensive play makers to their receiving corps.

Detroit has been moving players around also and has a lot to accomplish also; offensive line and defense in general being concerns.  They have picked up Shaun McDonald whose familiarity with the offense of Martz should be a plus.  They have signed two new running backs a move that suggests that the injury rehab for Kevin Jones may carry into the season.

Chicago has not done much in free agency; though the signing of Archuleta helps their defensive depth immensely.  The trade of Thomas Jones to the Jets has been widely criticized as being one-sided but Jones figured to be a holdout anyway and was on the verge of becoming a distraction.  In any case he was not going to be returning after this season so they got value for him while they could.

A Dangerous Trend

That trade might also have been taken to reduce the complications with their franchise player Lance Briggs, given that Jones and Briggs are both clients of Rosenhaus.  This situation with Briggs seems to be one more in a series of moves where players unhappy with their contracts try to force a trade by undercutting the relationship with the team.  If you believe that you have seen these tactics before with players represented by this agent you wouldn’t be wrong.  This strategy undercuts fundamental team values that the game of football is based upon.

The technique has not always been successful and in this case is unlikely to advance Briggs career objectives if a trade does not get worked out and perhaps even if it would.  Claims that Rosenhaus has made about interest in trades by other teams have been specifically denied by those teams.  The idea that Briggs will sit out the year seems a bit of a reach despite the threats.

Sitting out the year would cost him several million dollars, more than he has earned in his career to this point, and diminish his future value and there would be nothing to prevent Chicago from franchising him again.  That said the Bears would likely want to trade him if they could get sufficient value, the equivalent of a first round pick for example.

Still these situations are not good for the game.  The problem is inherent in the free agency process and rules which need revision.  One of the conditions on the franchise tag is that the team can not shop the player for trade purposes once they invoke the tag.  The Bears upon tagging Briggs stopped negotiating with him, undoubtedly contributing.  (They had reportedly previously made a six year 33 million dollar offer that was rejected.)

The ability of teams to make offers for transition players that can not be matched because of the inclusion of “poisoned” clauses in the offer means that the designation can not be used as intended to let the market determine a player’s actual contract value.  This is why there was no franchise player designated this season given what happened with Steve Hutchinson last year.  For the good of the game the NFLPA and the NFL need to reexamine these free agency classifications.

Thoughts and Comments

It is spring, and as we prepare for the new football season fan optimism, as always, is in full bloom.  It probably ought to be given the state of parity in the NFL it certainly seems anyone can turn it around like the Jets and Saints did last year.  Still there is not much that we can say, based on the developments so far, about who might be turning their season around from last year.

There is a tendency to confuse activity for progress.  A team that is not active in free agency probably is not losing anything in this market.  Though teams that have obvious needs might be able to pick up some useful players at this point who may turn out to be bargains in the long run.  Sometimes the late pickups turn out to be the best.

Most of the teams that were good last season will likely be good this season and many of the bad teams will still be bad; along the way there will be some surprises we are sure.  As often pointed out here football is a game where attitude and intangibles count for as much as talent, sometimes more.   Turning a team around depends on changing the attitudes of the players on that team as much as changing the players.

Email Dale at: dale "@" footballforecasters.com