Almost all draft material at this time of year is looked at from the prospective of the teams and predictions regarding their choices.  One approach looks at the individual players as to who is the “best” at their respective position.  The other looks at teams and what their needs appear to be from the outside.  Both of these approaches are of interest and like everything are highly speculative for the most part.  The mock draft attempts to bring those views together and predict the draft order. 

Every draft has trends.  A particular position or type of player suddenly seems to be a hot commodity leading to players being drafted before the various “experts” have predicted.  The process really sometimes does not seem to make much sense watching from the outside.  After all the teams needs did not suddenly change nor did the player suddenly get twenty spots better than where he was before.  The issue is that the value of a particular player is not simply his value but also his relative value as related to other potential draftees at all positions.  The incremental difference between players at their position may make their value relative to the rest of the draft less important. 

The depth of an overall draft is a big factor in this so in a general way this will be my view of how this draft stacks up from a positional standpoint without concentrating too much on specific individuals.  It is going to be hard to follow last year’s rookie class; which may have been one of the best ever, certainly in terms of short term achievement, across the board.  This is a good class in many spots but may not produce many players who will have an immediate impact, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Offense 

The offensive class here has very good depth but the talent at the very top, particularly at the “skill” positions is somewhat limited.  The group will produce solid contributors everywhere but is a bit short on star power with a couple of notable exceptions; Calvin Johnson being foremost of that group.  He clearly seems to be the number one player in this draft at any position.  (Forget that he ran a 4.35 forty.  His standing broad jump was 11-7 and his vertical leap was 42.5 tops for all wide receivers those numbers are testimony to explosiveness that a receiver can use for separation at any point.  Add that he runs routes precisely and shows good technique catching the ball and you have a player who can have immediate impact from his first start.) 

The quarterback class has a lot more questions than answers.  The position itself is subject to over analysis and too often being a good quarterback means being relegated to a bad and sometimes very bad team.  A place where the rookie starter (read sacrificial lamb) may have no chance to actually develop as an NFL quarterback.  Quarterbacks are a premium need though and this group is going to have their chances but the risks here are high, though the reward might be also. 

There are some good potential players here but most will require some development time - substantial time.  Russell seems to the type who could get burnt up quickly if not given some time to develop, though his upside is considerable.  Quinn would seem to be the most likely to develop quickly but there are a couple of quality developmental players out there who could be starters with a couple of seasons carrying a clipboard. 

Running backs are going to be disappointing compared to the crop last year.  Much of their success is going to be based on where they end up and how well they hold up.  There are a number of candidates who are fairly similar in measurables.  There are not very many big backs and the ones that are there have durability questions.  Still for teams using two back systems there will be several candidates in this draft and there should be quality choices available into the third round. 

The wide receiver group is defined by Calvin Johnson, a tough act to follow; he is exceptional and comparisons to him make other candidates look less talented.  The group though is good as a whole but like most wide receiver classes it will take most of them a season or two to learn their craft.  The continuing issue, more often than not, is getting these players to learn to run precise routes.  In college their athleticism and speed allowed many of them to be successful without the discipline that the NFL requires because the defenders are so much better. 

Where this draft may really shine is along the offensive line.   There look to be a dozen offensive linemen who could be starters as rookies on opening day, though that is unlikely, but by the end of the season there could be twenty or more rookies starting on offensive lines around the league.  You could take five rookies from this draft and have a quality offensive line by the 2008 season and an all-pro group within four years if they came together as a line. 

There are four or five players who project to play left tackle which is highly unusual, but there are another four or so tackles that might be developed at that position.  The guard position is nearly as deep and there are four or five centers that could be day one candidates based on their skills, most will last to the second day.  There are players here who will fit into whatever line scheme a team is running.  Of course this leads to very different grades however and means that these players will be available later than their talents would seem to merit. 

The draft is not particularly deep at tight end, a position that has taken on a Jekyll and Hyde personality.  Tight ends seem to either be pass catchers down the field or blockers with the ability to play a role in the short passing game.  Different schemes make dramatically different use of the position even making the tight end a fullback (H-back) of sorts.  Even adding in the fullbacks available this group is limited.  

The Defense 

Overall the defensive side of the draft is good.  It is seems possible that twenty-four of the thirty-two first round picks will be defensive players.  Again though, like the offensive class, these players are not “headliners” for the most part. 

There is generally good depth among the cornerbacks in this draft.  There may not be a true shut down corner in this draft but those are few and far between in any case.  The class though has a number of players who look to be consistent starters at some point in their professional careers with the top half dozen or so likely to contribute as rookies in limited roles. 

The safeties are one of the best groups on the defensive side of the draft.  The safety position itself has enjoyed a somewhat higher profile in recent years and correspondingly more attention is being paid to the safety position.  It used to be somewhat unusual for strong safeties to be drafted much in the first day, and free safeties were drafted more as nickel backs.  The safety position has become much more important, particularly in cover-two schemes. 

Probably the most limited group on the defensive side of the draft looks to be at linebacker.  The cover two systems will find their share of undersized speed guys; but 3-4 defenses looking for inside linebackers are going to have to work with a project pick.  Anyone seeking a classic 4-3 middle linebacker also will have to look at a developmental pick.  Outside linebackers are there but it still is not a very deep class. 

There is some overlap with outside linebackers and defensive ends in the 4-3 and here there is much better depth and a few who rate to be able to start as rookies at some point this season.  Defensive ends could be one of the areas where there may be some over reaches in the first round because of the weakness of the linebacker class. 

Defensive tackle is not an area of great depth for teams looking for the classic two-gap type or a true nose tackle (zero-technique) who will command a constant double team.  There are however a few good three-technique tackles available and even some who look like they can play one-technique.  (In case anyone is wondering zero is head up on the center, one is between the center and guard, also known as the under tackle, and three is on the outside shoulder of the guard.) 

Observations 

 

Playing football isn’t a right; it is a gift, and one that can be taken back.  To play the game requires discipline and commitment to something greater than you, the team.  Players who can not seem to understand this part of football are not really of much use to their team because they can’t be counted on. 

The league has come down on Adam Jones and Chris Henry as hard as was expected.  Good for the NFL, the league needed to take a clear stand and it has.  Society has plenty of people with problems and the percentage of players in the NFL who have the same problems is less than society as a whole.  The issue is that they should not tolerate those who repeatedly have problems. 

As a result of the sanctions expect that certain players in this draft are going to drop.  Their problems in college are going to cost them thousands and in some cases perhaps millions of dollars.  Hopefully the players affected will learn from this, perform and get paid for their talents with their next contracts but teams are going to be reducing their risks of drafting and paying for a player who will end up being suspended. 

 

Dale “at” footballforecasters.com