AFC
Report - The Usual Suspects
By Dale Sims
If you are looking for an
adventurous AFC prediction, you are going to have to look elsewhere it
appears.
Obviously, injuries will factor into the
actual results but the talent picture seems clear.
Last year saw about all of the rookie
quarterback successes and new offensive strategy twists that one is
likely to see in a decade let alone a season.
Add to that key injuries affecting some of
last season’s preseason favorites (Patriots, Jaguars, Chargers, and
Colts) and the results might lead one to expect a changing of the guard.
Not quite yet, though expect a calmer
season is expected in 2009.
The AFC East looks
to be a much softer division this season and the overall records are
likely to reflect that.
Within the conference, they draw the AFC
South, probably the best division in the NFL this season and the NFC
South, which will be down a bit from last year.
In this division, it is hard to pick
against the Patriots.
Brady may not come back to form immediately
but it should not take too long with the weapons available in that
offense.
Figuring out who will be the focus in their
running game is still a guess.
They will need some contributions from new
arrivals in the secondary to be an exceptional defense but the core up
front is solid going in. (12-4)
Buffalo
will have to have the offensive line come together in a hurry if they
are to mount a challenge.
Adding Owens to the receiver corps is not
going to help them if the line falters.
There is also the seemingly inevitable TO
sideshow to be concerned about.
The
defense has generally lacked a pass rush and as a result consistency.
(8-8)
Expect
Miami
to come back to earth a bit this season; they have a more difficult
schedule and the Wildcat is unlikely to be as effective for them.
The offensive line and running backs are
solid but the receiving corps is suspect.
They have made a number of changes
defensively notably because they needed to get younger and those are
going to have a price, particularly early in the season.
(6-10).
The Jets are in a rebuilding
mode at the skill positions on offense.
The offensive line is good but the
quarterback is likely to be a rookie and the loss of Coles is going to
be a limiting factor.
Ryan is a defensive coach and there is a
great deal of talent on that side of the ball but the team’s results
have not reflected it.
This group will have to perform at a
consistently good level for the Jets to play average overall.
(5-11).
The AFC North plays the West
within the conference and the NFC North as common opponents.
In
the division, there is little reason not to like the Steelers.
The offensive line was an issue at the
start of last season but looks to be solid going into this one.
The running backs are healthy going into
the year and they have depth.
A solid offense though not explosive they
control the clock regularly leading the NFL in time of possession.
The
defense is the staple here and will continue to be one of the best in
the NFL.
Despite winning the Super Bowl, this was
not a dominating team last season; this is simply a fundamentally solid
team that wins. (11-5)
The Ravens have a developing
offense.
The offensive line played well last season
and will be improved by the arrival of center Matt Birk.
Flacco will have a year of experience but
the lack of a solid receiving corps is not going to help his
development.
The defense will still be the focal point
of the team and rates to be good again, perhaps even better than last
season if they can get, and stay, reasonably healthy.
(10-6)
Cincinnati
will be better than last season, a healthy Carson Palmer will help but
the offensive still is a work in progress and that and reduced talent at
the receiver position will set some serious limits to their potential.
The defensive line is not in any better
shape but there is some overall talent in the back seven that has yet to
be realized. (6-10).
Cleveland
is undergoing another round of restructuring and will be undergoing some
significant scheme changes on offense.
The offensive line play regressed from the
previous season.
These elements are likely to result in
overall inconsistency at least early in the season.
Defensively the situation is almost as
murky, a number of off-season acquisitions will be factors here but how
is uncertain.
(5-11)
The AFC West as previously
noted plays the North and then plays across to the NFC East, good though
not as dangerous as last season.
The division looks to belong to Chargers by
default if nothing else.
This is a very talented team and should
rebound convincingly from the injury-plagued 2008 season, with all that
they catch a soft schedule.
The offense is talented, prolific, and
deep.
The defense is solid and capable of the big play
that can turn a game around.
The coaching seems to be suspect at times
but this is a very good team with something to prove.
(13-3)
Kansas City
has moved to solidify their offense by adding Matt Cassel to a young and
improving group.
The loss of Gonzalez he will not have one
of the most reliable receivers ever for the Chiefs.
The offensive line is still missing pieces
but may show some development.
The defensive scheme is a question; almost
anything would be an improvement over last season’s debacle that was the
worst in the conference across the board.
(5-11).
Denver
may not be as bad off offensively as most are predicting.
The offensive line is a real bright spot
and will give the running game a chance and protect Orton who is better
than he gets credit for with a record as a starter of 21-12.
Their
defense is switching to the 3-4 and the personnel are not ideal.
(They were hardly ideal for the 4-3 either
though.)
This will continue to be their Achilles
heel. (4-12)
Oakland
is still what they are and it is hard to see that they have managed to
make themselves any better.
They might have the best track team in the
NFL but that is not how teams are ranked at the end of the season.
On offense, their running game appears to
have some potential; but everything else is a guess.
They will have their moments defensively
but their only consistency is likely to be in their inconsistency.
(4-12)
The AFC South plays the AFC
East and the NFC West, which looks like a soft schedule.
The division itself looks to be very
competitive and while forecasting the demise of the Colts is fashionable
it may be a season or two premature at this point.
Changes in the coaching staff do not
reflect any change in scheme and Manning is still in his prime and
healthy; with an offensive line that is healthy and stable.
Their schedule features several of the
worse teams in the NFL in defending the pass.
Defensively
they have added bulk and depth at defensive tackle in an attempt to
shore up their poor run defense.
(12-4)
Jacksonville
looks to be back from its injury problems along the offensive line.
They have supplemented that group through
both the draft and free agency and should be in good shape there.
They lack talent and depth in the receiving
corps and will be a bit one-dimensional.
The defense should be solid but lack of
depth in the secondary is a concern, still they look to contend for a
playoff spot. (10-6)
Tennessee
is coming off a great season but they overachieved slightly last season
and are not quite as good this season.
They get outstanding play from their
offensive line that enables their run first offense to be effective but
they lack consistent receiving options.
The defense is still good but will miss
Haynesworth, still they will be in the mix for a playoff spot.
(10-6)
Houston
seems to be a popular favorite and they are talented club but not deep.
Their offense is effective and they have
the skill players; the offensive line has come together as well.
The defense is talented in spots but
inconsistent they have they established a level of play defensively that
is anywhere close to their talent level.
If they were in any other division, they
would have a chance at the playoffs they just do not match up well
within the division.
(8-8)
(If
you want a dark horse though Houston seems poised for a break out if
they can stay healthy and get better play overall from the back seven..)
There are some hard calls to
make here when it comes to playoff time.
The wildcard teams look to be
Jacksonville and either Baltimore
or Tennessee
which may have to be decided by a second-tier (or worse) tiebreaker
since they do not play each other.
(None of these teams rate to be an easy
out.)
The talent and quality of the
top teams here is very high but nearly equivalent, which one ends up
with home field advantage, is going to matter.
(As
if the November 15th game between the Colts and Patriots
needed more hype.)
In the final analysis, though San Diego looks to come out
of the AFC and gets my vote to win the Super Bowl.
The real game of the season may be on
October 4th when the Steelers visit the Chargers.
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