Football Forecasters.com Members Area

Logout 

A+   Rated Plays:    Subscription NFL Picks or College Football Pick's as close as we come to  having a  "lock"  - But it's wrong about 30% of the time! 

A  Rated Plays: NFL Picks & College Football Pick's that we feel very good about.

B  Rated Plays:  Free College football & NFL Picks which we think are winners.

A Rated Week 17 Football Picks:

New England DT Vince Wilfork is OUT - this is a big absence for NE. However, the Pats run D has played well without him thus far this year... but it may mean NE is going conservative in their finale....  Cleveland may have packed it in, and Houston has been playing with a lot of enthusiasm.  The Texans also have a very favorable go-to matchup with Andre Johnson vs anyone in the Browns secondary. Denver and Seattle both would like to end the season on a winning note going into the playoffs... so expect them to come to play, in what is typically the toughest week to handicap in the NFL.

12/31/2006 

A rated NFL pick: Baltimore - Win

The Raven defense may cover this one  on their own... don't see Baltimore letting up with so much at stake. The Ravens can be beaten deep, and there is some potential for a backdoor cover.... However, good defenses typically take professional pride in keeping the opposition out of the endzone - even in the late stages of a game. Baltimore offense has come together over the 2nd half of the season, and they should be able to move the ball both over the top and on the ground against the Bills D. Look for a double digit margin of victory for the Ravens.

B rated NFL pick: New England (ML)(+) Modified: 12/31/06 - WIN

Both teams will come to play, and Belichik has a history of playing to win with nothing at stake. Patriots can beat you a multitude of ways, and they do have a formidable rush attack to exploit the Titans vulnerable run defense. Patriots  vulnerable to strong pass attacks over the top, but that hardly describes the Titans rush oriented offense.  Expect Pats to focus on stopping the run, and Vince Young will have trouble with the Pats 3-4 defensive front. We like New England to pull off the out right upset in this spot, in what will likely be a lower scoring game (Consider the UNDER as an alternative play).

Also Likes: Seattle (ML)(+), Denver, St. Louis, Miami (+), Houston

12/26/2006 

Big Al's A rated College bowl picks: 

Rutgers - W

Wake Forest (+)(ML) - L

Texas A&M (+)(ML) - L

Clemson - L

Ohio State

(Big Al says Rutgers and Ohio State are his highest rated college bowl plays)

12/23/2006 

A rated NFL pick: Atlanta - Loss

Atlanta will be able to run the ball, and punch it into the end zone; on the other side Carolina looks to throw the ball, and move between the 20's, but have been impotent in the red zone. Panther's offensive line's been injury riddled, and they haven't been able to sustain a consistent rush attack all year. Panther's are already without their playmaking MLB, and are now without stud DE, Mike Rucker, who suffered a season ending injury last week; while Atlanta is getting their premier DE, John Abraham, back.  Scorecasting models, and power rankings have Atlanta winning by 6 to 10 points. The situation favors Atlanta, who are playing their final home game and will make the playoffs if they win out. We like the Falcons by 10 in this spot, and this one has potential to be a blow-out.

A rated NFL pick: Seattle (ML)(+) - Win

Upgraded to A play status 12/24/06: The language coming out of San Diego leads us to believe Chargers players are not 100% committed to winning this game (they already have the division locked up, and a first round playoff bye can be attained with a win next week, or a Baltimore/Indianapolis loss within the next two weeks. Two key cogs of San Diego's stout rushing defense are listed as out for this game, DT Luis Castillo, and underrated MLB Randall Godfrey. San Diego's wide receivers are hurting, and Parker is OUT; look for Seattle to stack the line, and force QB Philip Rivers to beat them over the top.  San Diego has a vulnerable secondary, if Hasselbeck plays sharp Seattle has the weapons to move the ball over the top (and on the ground). With Seattle off consecutive embarrassing losses there is solid line value. We're betting Hasselbeck comes in focused, and taking the Seahawks on the ML at 4% of bankroll (some folks don't like to play the ML, and the spread is used for record keeping purposes of W/L percentage).

San Diego in a tough spot here: They're coming off two intense home division contests, where they notched convincing wins and secured the AFC West division title, and probably a first round playoff bye. Now, they're heading North to face a team that is in a near must win situation, and has the weapons to beat them.  Scorecasting models project SAN DIEGO to win by 6 to 7 points. However, we like the intangibles here that heavily favor the dog, who have been performing far below their ability level, and wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle outright win the game.

Also Likes: Buffalo, Oakland (+)

12/15/2006 

A rated NFL pick: Jacksonville - Loss (140 tyds - 3 defensive scores by Tennessee)

We'll update again Saturday morning (with some College Bowl analysis), about noon EST for most people. But I wanted to get the NFL picks out that we absolutely know we want to put up. Jacksonville is an A rated play: The Jags have a dominant rush attack, and they're going against a division rival with one of the worst run defenses in the league - and they need the win (no letdown factor here, and small chance of a backdoor cover).  This won't be the blowout it was a month ago, but the Jags will win and it could get ugly.  

B rated NFL pick: Arizona (+)(ML) - Loss

Our highest rated upset pick is Arizona: The Cardinals actually playing solid ball recently, and Leinart is currently further along in his development than Cutler. Denver defense is extremely vulnerable in the secondary. With the Bronco's going with rookie Cutler (at QB) late in the season they essentially stated our season is over. The Cards are a very good Money Line play.

NFL also likes: Baltimore, Philly (+), Houston (+), Washington (+), Chicago, Pittsburgh

12/22/2006

A rated college bowl pick:  Rice - Win

We went with Troy a couple weeks ago as our last A+ rated college pick of the regular season, and they cashed in with a dominant effort. However, this isn't a very good match-up for Troy.  Rice has been playing very good ball down the stretch, they are a well balanced and well coached team, with a potent offense, and they are happy to be in a bowl game. Rice is vulnerable against strong rushing teams, and have a decent secondary. Troy is almost exclusively a pass oriented team, and we don't see them keeping up at trading points.  Our scorecasting model projects a higher scoring affair, with 7-10 point margin of victory by the Owls. 

12/22/2006

B rated college bowl pick:  SJSU (+)(ML) - Win

The better team is getting points here, sure the game is in New Mexico's back yard, and that's probably why the Lobo's are favored. However, the value play is on the Spartans. SJSU is slightly stronger on both sides of the ball, and all of our scorecasting models have them winning a close game straight up. Consider that the Lobos have a very weak pass defense, if the run oriented Spartans do fall behind they can get right back into it with a respectable pass attack. However, we don't think it's going to come down to that. We'll call the Spartans to win SU and take SJSU on the Money Line.

We will post our remaining Members Bulletin College Bowl picks by next Friday - GL.

12/10/2006 

There are a couple of better than average looking picks on the board this weekend: It was a tough spot for Indy at Dallas 3 weeks ago, and we called the upset, but we'd be surprised to see the Colts drop 3 in a row. However, it's a tough match-up for them due to Jacksonville's strong running game. Still, gotta take the Colts here (probably on a low exposure 2-team parlay).  The Dallas / New Orleans contest has significant playoff ramifications and should be a great game to watch. Most of the fundamental matchups here favor Dallas, who should be able to run the ball on them all day, and hit a few deep plays. New Orleans gives up 5 ypc on the ground... we see Dallas jumping out to a lead early. But the Saints have a penchant for hitting the big pass play, and the Cowboys safeties can be beaten deep - so there is significant probability for a backdoor cover (we like the OVER in this one a bit more than either side). Tampa generally plays well as a home dog, and Atlanta is banged up in the secondary... but we're going to stay away from this one.  We lost with the free pick: UNDER on Oakland last week, with Houston scoring on defense and scoring off turnovers, but be careful laying double digits with Cincinnati this week - everything points to a rout - but consider that if you picked the largest dog on the board each week this season you'd be money ahead. That said if the line on Denver moves to double digits we'll make a 3% play, and may anyway with getting the TD.  We like Carolina at home, who's offensive line issues will be disguised by playing at home vs an anemic Giants pass rush. 

Minnesota has historically played well at Detroit, and we'd like them as the underdog pick of the week - but I swore to myself I wasn't going to play Minnesota again this year, no more how good it looked. Philly looks like an attractive play at Washington, Moss won't beat them deep - and Garcia is probably a more accurate pure  passer than McNabb. 

A+ rated NFL pick: NY Jets - Loss

New York has situational, motivational, and fundamental match-up advantageous in their favor. They're playing at home in a division contest with a wildcard seed at stake. If you just look at total stats projections this line appears to be right on the mark. But consider that Buffalo gives up the highest pass completion rating to opposing offenses in the league (at 65%) and the Jets have an efficient short pass ball control offense. The Jets are vulnerable to strong rushing teams, but the Bills have one of the weakest rush attacks in the league. We have the Bills putting up 10-17 points, and the Jets posting 17-27 points. In this spot we'll call a 10 point margin of victory by the well coached home team.

A rated NFL pick: Carolina - Loss

The Giants are still without their best offensive lineman, T Luke Petigout; and still without DL Strahan. Carolina has a pretty good defensive line, and they'll get after Eli. Weinke is the starting QB for Carolina, but we're not dissuaded by him getting the start, as he's experienced and talented - and was the former starter for this squad, he may in fact be better at this point than Delhomme. Both squads come in desperate for a win, but Carolina is playing at home, has been in both games that they've lost, and can get a leg up on NY in the NFC wildcard race with the W.. Keep in mind that in their last two losses Delhomme has given the ball away at key points in both of the Panther's recent defeats. We suspect that going to Weinke may not be entirely due to a strained ligament in Delhomme's thumb. Carolina has been running the ball well lately, look for the Panther's to rush the ball 30-35 times in this one.  We're calling for a 3-7 point margin of victory by Carolina; and this could get ugly if Eli continues to be careless with the ball.

12/10/2006  

B rated NFL pick: Tennessee (+)(ML) - Win

Titans playing very well lately, on both sides of the ball. This is going to be our free play of the week, it's a nice play to take on the Money Line. Houston QB Carr is banged up, their offensive line is banged up, and they haven't been able to establish a running game.  Tennessee is coming on, and they should be able run the ball on the Texans. We think they can outright win this game.

Also Likes: Dallas,  UNDER Min/Det,  Philly (We downgraded Denver (+), and Indy - to no play)

12/02/2006

A+ rated college pick - Troy - WIN

Troy has the motivational, situational, and fundamental edges in this one:  If Troy wins, they are Sun Belt conference champions and go to the New Orleans Bowl (if they lose then the team they beat on the road last week, MTSU, goes). Troy travels to Florida-International, remember that FIU had over a dozen of their players suspended for the season 6 weeks ago (in a fracas at Miami). Since then they've averaged 2 points a game at home, including 3 shut-outs. Troy has a potent passing offense, and are number 2 in total offense in the Sun Belt. FIU has the conference's worst pass defense, and are last in overall D in the Sun Belt. FIU will do very well to put up 7 to 10 points, while Troy should put up 17 to 28 points in this contest. We'll call a 17 point margin of victory for Troy.

Also Likes: Navy, UCLA (+), Rutgers (+), Oregon St. (+)(ML), SDSU (+)(ML)

12/03/2006  

A rated NFL pick: Miami (ML)(+) - Loss

The Miami defense is playing much better since their bye 4 weeks ago, and DE Jason Taylor is having a Pro Bowl year; on the other hand visiting Jacksonville's defense has been depleted by injuries, both in the secondary and on the defensive line. Look for Miami to stack the line and make Jacksonville beat them over the top - the Jaguars receivers are deplorable. Miami should be able to consistently move the ball over the top - both deep and short to the TE's. Both squads have key division games next week, so the look ahead issue is a non-factor as it impacts them both equally. Consider that Miami is coming in off 10 days of rest, and Jacksonville has lost leaders on both sides of the ball. We'll take Miami on the MoneyLine to pull the upset and win by a 3-7 point margin.

12/03/2006  

A rated NFL pick: Oakland

We kinda like the stand HC Art Shell took with the organization; and think this may serve to galvanize the team. Oakland has a very good defense, and they simply match up well to visiting Houston. Texans have not been able to establish a consistent ground game, and we don't see them doing anything over the top against this secondary - Houston will do well to reach double digits on the scoreboard.  Raiders offense has been uninspiring but they should be able to do reach the endzone at least twice against Houston's even more uninspiring defense. We'll call a 7 point Raiders win, and like the UNDER as well.

Also Likes: Washington, Buffalo (+), OVER NYJ/GB, UNDER Oak/Hou

11/25/2006

A+ rated college pick - Rutgers - WIN

Two weeks ago we went against the Orangemen in South Florida's final home game, we see a similar situation developing this Saturday. We have fundamental and situational edges favoring Rutgers: On the field Rutgers offensive and defensive units should dominate on both sides of the ball. Syracuse hasn't been able to run the ball, and that is a keystone factor to maintaining time of possession on the road. Syracuse has averaged 10 points a game traveling within the Big East, while Rutgers has given up only 11 points a game at home to Big East opposition - that includes holding powerhouse Louisville to 0 points in the 2nd half.  This is the final home game, and "senior day" for the Knights outgoing class; they'll want to maintain their undefeated home record. Rutgers was in a tough spot last week traveling to Cincinnati, and we called the loss (see Cincinnati in our college "also likes" segment last week). HC Schiano is a motivator, and he'll get the troops back-up for this final home contest. We have Rutgers putting up 28-35 points, Syracuse 7-14, and will call on Rutgers to post a win by doubling up the Orangemen.

11/25/2006

A rated college pick - East Carolina (+)(ML) - WINNER

This is an intra-state rivalry with ECU getting points, but we think ECU has the better team. They have played two common opponents, with NC State losing both games to Virginia and Southern Miss, while ECU has defeated both of those teams. The Wolfpack has lost 6 in a row, while the Pirates have logged 6 wins this season, and have a legit shot at a bowl invitation if they log the road win here. Statistically NC State ranks near the bottom in all major offensive and defensive categories of their conference. NC State has a respectable pass defense, but ECU runs a balanced offensive attack; and they should be able to move the ball on the ground on NC States D. We have the Wolfpack putting up 17-24 points, and ECU registering 21-28 points. This is a nice spot to play ECU on the Money Line (ML) to juice up a two-team parlay ticket.

Also Likes: Arkansas (ML), Florida, Missouri

11/26/2006  

A rated NFL pick: Minnesota - LOST 

The fundamental breakdowns heavily favor the Vikings here. We've been burned by Minnesota twice this year, and have been reluctant to put them atop our "best play" list. However, they grade out as an A-rated pick, so we'll let you decide:  Arizona hasn't been able to establish the run all year, their offensive line is playing poorly, they're a grass team playing in a loud dome, starting a rookie QB, they have a lame duck HC, and facing the leagues top rated run defense. Minnesota should win going away.

Also Likes: We see solid B-rated value in several other contests: The Saints are getting points traveling to Atlanta, who's defense and secondary is a mess.  New Orleans is the better team, and would be a nice Money Line play to win SU.  San Francisco is also banged up in the secondary, St. Louis is returning home and they should be able to move the ball all day on this defense - Rams by 10. The Green Bay secondary is vulnerable to a spread offense, and Seattle is highly effective playing 3-wide. The Seahawks have a great match-up advantage here, and as long as the line stays under double digits are worth a play. The Redskins are starting a newbie at QB, but unlike Dallas don't have a strong running game to support an inexperienced QB. The Skins defense has played very poorly, and Carolina should be able to move the ball both on the ground and over the top - Panthers by 10.  Cincinnati defense is a mess, they have a date with Baltimore next Thursday, and Cleveland has actually played solid ball. We like the Browns playing at home on the ML to pull off the upset.

Also Likes: New Orleans (ML), St.Louis, Seattle, Carolina, Cleveland (+)(ML),  OVER Tenn/NYG

This weekend we have another strong slate of "Also Like" rated games. Between Saturday and Sunday we see one contest, Kentucky, that stands out significantly above the others as a high percentage play. This Friday morning we've upgraded Kentucky to an A+ rated opinion. We would play the A+ rated opinion at 4 to 5% of starting bankroll ("starting" defined as the total bankroll at the beginning of the season), and the "Also Like" rated opinions at 3 to 4% of bankroll. Another option is to play the also like rated opinions on two-team parlays at 1 to 2% of bankroll. 

We are considering Dallas on the ML as our free NFL pick of the week. They have some solid match-up advantageous against Indy. Some vulnerabilities as well, but Parcells knows how to minimize those.

The Jets are also in a nice spot to pull off a home upset, catching Chicago traveling off an intense Monday night win against the Giants. 

11/18/2006

A+ rated college pick - Kentucky - Loss

11/16/06  Big Al likes Kentucky. We're officially on the Wildcats as an A-rated opinion. It's their final home game, and they control their own Bowl destiny. Louisiana-Monroe is playing their 3rd and final road game, before heading home to finish out their Sun Belt conference schedule. Monroe hasn't played well on the road, and they're facing a senior laden SEC foe that is playing well. We'll give more details later, but we wanted to post this now for our Members as we think the line may go up by kick-off. Big Al likes Kentucky to win by 4-5 TDs.

More on Kentucky: The Wildcats have a potent and well balanced offense, but a somewhat porous defense. However, the defense has a nose for the football. Offensively Kentucky has thrived on the ground since the return of their starting RB; and the offensive line performance benefits greatly from the tutelage of OL coach Jim Heggins (ex Florida State position coach). This is Kentucky's first winning season for the senior laden team; and they want to earn a bowl berth BAD. Louisiana-Monroe is not in the same class - and they won't be able to match the intensity this Kentucky squad will bring. 

11/18/2006

A rated college pick - USC - WIN

11/17/06  UPDATE: This ain't the 2003 version of the Golden Bears. We're making a call on this one based primarily on motivational and situational factors. USC can win the Pac-10 with a home win, Cal could take the title with a road win; but Cal hasn't won a game on the road playing on a grass surface this year. USC does have vulnerabilities on defense, but we don't see Cal having the strengths to exploit them; and Cal's defensive weakness' are more exploitable.  We have Cal putting up 17 to 21 points, and USC 24-35 points.

Also Likes: BYU, USC, SJSU (+), Cincinnati (+) 

11/19/2006  

A rated NFL pick: Baltimore - WIN 

Atlanta is a tricky team to pick against, because Vick is such an X-factor, and we usually shy away from going against them.  However, Vick is facing one of the more physical defenses in the league, and he doesn't perform well when he gets knocked around. The Ravens secondary can play man-up on this group of wide-outs, and that enables them to focus on stopping the Falcons running game. When the Falcons fall behind, they're going to be forced to throw, and they're not built to come from behind. Atlanta's defense is decimated, and Baltimore will be able to move the ball on them. If Vick turns it over when they go the air, this one has potential to get ugly. This is just a bad match-up for Atlanta all the way around, we like Baltimore by 10.

Also Likes: Dallas (ML), NYJ (+), SF (+), Cleveland (ML)(+)

11/11/2006

We like the slate of games this week, our money management strategy would be to hit the A-rated picks straight up (SU) with a 4-5% of bankroll play, and the "also likes" SU with a 3-4% of bankroll play; or any of the also likes on a 1-2% of bankroll two-team parlay.  "ML" stands for potential Money Line pick - for example UCLA could be a nice ML pick on a two team parlay with Maryland (or any other pick we have listed).  Peace & GL - Football Forecasters.

A+ rated college pick - South Florida - WIN

We've been watching the Bulls all season, and this is the spot to play em. A couple years ago we rode the unheralded Bulls hard and heavy to a winning season. Since their inception to the Big East the Vegas line has caught up with them. This is South Florida's final home game, they rank in the upper half both offensively and defensively in conference stats; while Syracuse ranks at or near the bottom in all major conference statistics. Fundamentally South Florida has match-up advantages on both sides of the ball; they'll be able to move the ball both on the ground and over the top. On the other hand Syracuse is playing on the road, on grass, outdoors, and they haven't been able to establish a ground game all year. The Bulls reached bowl eligibility week, this is their final home game of the year, and they'd like to solidify there position for a quality bowl bid. The Orangemen are off a bye, however, Cuse and HC Robinson have historically performed poorly after a bye. We like the fundamental and situation advantageous favoring USF, and will call on them to double up the uninspired Orangemen. Bulls by 17.  

Also Likes: Nebraska, Maryland, South Carolina (+), Oregon (+), UCLA (ML)

11/012/2006  

A rated NFL pick: Minnesota - Loss (why do we keep playing Minnesota?)

Favre and GB play their best when the Pack can establish the run, we don't see them doing that in this spot. Minnesota has one of the better rush defenses in the league, they're familiar with QB Brett Favre, and they should be focused and inspired coming back home off two embarrassing losses. We're getting line value because the Pack has played surprisingly well against lower tier teams. But this is a division contest, and the stakes go up in division play. The pressure is off the Vikings now, and we think they'll respond by posting a double digit win over the mistake prone Pack.

11/12/2006  

B rated NFL pick: St Louis (+)(ML) - WIN

Seattle is banged up, but they can "afford" to lose this game and still control the division. Hence, Alexander is not being rushed back into service. St Louis always seems to play Seattle tough; and even when the Seahawks had a good secondary the Rams have always been able to throw on them. Now Seattle's secondary has been porous, and there rush attack has struggled. This plays to both the strength and weakness of the Rams. Look for St Louis to give Seattle all they can handle, and they just may pull off the outright upset.

Also Likes: OVER GB/Minn,  OVER Pitt/N.O.,  Oakland (+)  

10/31/2006

We're going to wait till Saturday morning to finalize our A-rated NFL pick of the week. That said, I wanted Members to know that personally I hit Jacksonville with a 4% of bankroll play laying less than double digits. This line may go up to double digits later in the week; and if we post it as a play it will almost certainly go up by kick-off. Jacksonville has a fundamental match-up advantage with their strong rushing attack vs a porous Tennessee run defense; while Tennessee will have a difficult time moving the ball on the ground at Jacksonville. More later.

11/04/2006

A rated college pick - Oklahoma - Loss

Bob Stoops. There's really not anything else we need to say. He's that good of a coach. The records and stats are deceiving in this one, so throw them out the window. Texas A&M has played a soft schedule, and they've eked out several wins in the final minutes. A&M HC Dennis Franchione has a recent history of coming up small in big games. The Sooners are the real deal, and this is the type of situation Stoops excels at getting the most out of his players. The Sooners play mistake free ball, and they'll put pressure on the undisciplined A&M team that's fattened it's record on weak competition. Oklahoma is a game behind A&M in conferences standings, so they'll be focused in this spot. We're calling Oklahoma winning by 7-10 points on the road.

Big Al has several picks he likes this week besides Oklahoma - Also Likes:

Nevada, North Texas, BSU, SJSU, BYU (Big Al's comment was "take the Cougars for the next month if they're laying less than 30.") Ohio State, Arkansas

11/05/2006  

A+ rated NFL pick: Jacksonville - WIN

Garrard may be the better QB, but we don't care which Jacksonville QB starts, it's the defense that will dominate this one for the Jaguars. A defensive score is statistically the No. 1 point spread difference maker in football - you saw an example last week when Oakland's defense scored on two int. returns against Pittsburgh - which gave them the win and the cover (and cost us an A rated play). Tennessee's defense is thin up front, and without Pacman Jones extremely vulnerable in the secondary; we're not too concerned about Tennessee's defense scoring. That said it will be the Jaguars running game that should dominate the offensive stats. On the other side of the ball look for the Titans to have less than 160 yards of total offense. If the Jags don't cough up the ball to Tennessee (like Houston last week), they'll roll to a double digit win at home.

11/05/2006  

B rated NFL pick: San Francisco (+)(ML) - WIN

Minnesota has been difficult to get a read on, they're definitely a wild card. But San Francisco has been a tough draw at home for non-division opponents. The Niner's can throw the ball, and the Vikings are vulnerable to just this kind of pass attack. Both teams should be able to score here. We're getting a bit of value here because of San Fran's recent blow-out loss at Chicago. Consider that Minnesota is a dome team playing on grass, they're off an embarrassing Monday night loss, and get the short travel week. We prefer the Niner's on the MoneyLine here, as it's a classic upset spot - and won't be surprised at all to see them pull out the SU upset.

Also Likes: New Orleans, Chicago, Buffalo

10/28/2006 

A rated college pick - Notre Dame - Win

Fundamental match-ups greatly favor the Irish, in addition we have a motivation factor for ND as well. Irish dropped 1 spot in the BCS standings after their close call with UCLA. Big Al felt ND would win by 3 (He was at the game), and UCLA did in fact give them all they could handle. Navy however doesn't have the weapons over the top that can exploit the Irish secondary. Look for ND to dominate on both sides of the ball and win by 17-24 points.

Also Likes: South Carolina (ML), Wake Forest, Wisconsin, Kent St., BYU, Utah

10/29/2006  

A rated NFL pick: Pittsburgh Steelers - Loss

This pick is about strong fundamental and situational advantages to Pittsburgh. Oakland has leagues 26th ranked run defense, and Pittsburgh can run the ball. There's bad blood between the owners, so there should not be a letdown. Raiders got the monkey of a "winless" season off their back last week. And finally, the Steelers at 2-4 cannot afford to lose against this caliber of competition.  Moss is a sloppy route runner, and has been dropping a lot of balls; look for Steeler DB Polamalu to have a great day.  Pittsburgh by 13.

Also Likes: New Orleans, Green Bay, Cleveland, St.Louis (+), Atlanta (+), KC

We're waiting for the Friday injury reports for our final friday updates this week. There could be some key injuries in the trenches in the college ranks that will impact how we feel about certain contests. 

Big Al is at South Bend taking in the game. He has nothing riding on the outcome, and he "doesn't have a feel on this game", he doesn't see an advantage in the line. That's how your supposed to wager - if you don't see an advantage then don't wager. We're in this to make money - and we only place a wager when we see an edge we can exploit.

Take Rutgers at Pittsburgh: This one should be a dogfight. Pitt is playing good ball, and Wanny knows how to emotionally charge his players. On paper Rutgers is the better team, and if we played them it would be on the generous ML - We hate to bet against emotion though, so it might be best to play them on a conservative two team parlay. On another contest Big Al comments that Ohio State may score the most points they've had all year this Saturday. 

On Sunday we think Denver uncorks their offense.

10/21/2006 Friday Upate:

A+ rated college pick - Wisconsin - WIN

This line is not high enough. Wisconsin is the complete package. They can beat you a number of ways on offense, and their defense is sound. Purdue is one dimensional on offense, and their defense is porous. Badgers may not punt in the first half. Purdue may score last, but we still think Wisky maintains a double digit margin of victory.

Also Likes: OSU, BYU, Ohio, Rutgers (ML), Alabama (+), Boston College (+), UAB, Air Force

10/22/2006 - 

A rated NFL pick: Washington (ML)(+) - Lose

The Redskins have not been playing great ball this season, hence the big number, but they do match-up well to Indy, their backs are against the wall, and they should be focused in this spot. Colts are soft up the middle, while the skins can punch the ball up the gut. If center Jeff Saturday is out for Indy by kick-off then this becomes an A+ rated pick. This contest should be decided by a FG.

10/22/2006 - 

A rated NFL pick: Denver - WIN

There is value in this number, and we have a fundamental match-up advantage to Denver. Broncos should be able to run the ball, they have one of the leagues more potent rush attacks, and they're facing one of the leagues more porous rush defenses. Neither pass attacks have established themselves this season, however, Denver does have talent at wideout; while at the same time the Broncos DB's match-up well to the Browns wideouts. We'll call a 10 point Denver victory.

Also Likes: OVER NYJ/Det (this is going to be our free B-rated pick), NYJ, NYG, Miami

We wanted to get our top rated picks up for members to view; I will be adding some analysis by Saturday morning. The "also likes" are B-rated games worthy of a 3-4% of bankroll play, or putting on a 1.5% of bankroll two team parlay.

10/14/06 - I get emails asking what do I mean by "1.5% of bankroll" (which I presume is specifically asking how much to bet? And if I receive 1 email on a subject, there are probably another dozen who are wondering the same thing). How much 1.5% is depends on how large your bankroll is, and how much your typical base wager is. If you don't know then you're probably losing. (Please read the article on money management linked near the top of our home page.) 

This is how I do it: If my bankroll is $1000, then my base SU wager is about $40 (bankroll is definded as how much you can afford to lose in a season - using a nice easy number for illustration purposes - your bankroll will vary). My base two team parlay wager would then be about $15.  A betting strategy for this weeks games would be: $40 dollars each on Purdue, Washington, and Atlanta ( A-rated games bet SU); then $15 each on a variety of two team parlay's - for example: Wisconsin + Rutgers(ML)  /  Auburn(ML) + UAB  /  Texas A&M(ML) +  Iowa  /  West Virginia + New Orleans (ML)  /  Nebraska + San Diego  /  Kansas  +  Tampa Bay... etc, etc. (it doesn't really matter how you mix and match the games, just put two games on each ticket.)  You see I like to mix Money Line plays with favorites, and college plays with NFL plays - that's just a personal preference. The key is to stick with your defined base wager on every two-teamer, and not give into the temptation to add another pick (make it a 3-teamer). Another caution is to NOT bet the other way if the front side of your parlay has already hit - that's a losers proposition.

The two team parlay strategy returns a winning percentage on your risk, with a realistic goal of hitting 58% of your overall picks; while at the same time reducing your exposure to loss, in the event you have a down week. The other thing I like about the two team parlay is it allows you to spread your action over more contests when you have a higher number of games that interest you.

BTW - We've added Kansas to the NCAA "also likes", and Tampa Bay to the NFL.

Peace,

Football Forecasters

10/14/2006 

A+ rated college pick: Purdue - WIN

Boilermakers off two consecutive road losses (Notre Dame and Iowa), which gives us line value in this spot. Purdue has potent pass oriented offense, and they should have their way with the Big Ten's 2nd worst defense... statically the worst defense in the conference, being Purdue's... at least until this Saturday. N'western doesn't have the rush attack that could give Purdue trouble. Look for the Boilermakers to stack the line, and make freshman QB Brewer beat them over the top. N'western has the conferences weakest pass attack, so that isn't likely. Our basic scorecasting model has Purdue winning by 8, with post-season bowl berths in the picture we like the Boilermakers to come out firing in this spot, and to double up the Wildcats - Purdue by 17.

College Also Likes: Wisconsin, Rutgers (ML), Auburn (ML), Texas A&M (ML), UAB,  W.V., Iowa Nebraska, Illinois, USC, Kansas

10/15/2006 

A rated NFL pick: Atlanta - Lose

Falcons off a bye. The NY defense has been vulnerable against the pass, and this is the best rushing offense they've faced this year. On the other side Falcons have an aggressive quick defense that matches up very well to NY. Giants O-line has had trouble establishing the run, and Atlanta has one of the better rush defenses in the league. We like the fundamental match-ups, as well as the spot for Atlanta.  Falcons by 7.

10/15/2006 

A rated NFL pick: Washington - Lose

Tennessee without their best run defending interior lineman, don't see how they're going to slow down the power run oriented Redskins; who should be focused in this spot. Over the top Washington has match-up advantageous they can exploit against a porous Titans secondary. This will be one of the tougher defenses rookie QB Vince Young sees this season; look for the Skins blitz to be relentless. Tennessee may not get into the endzone here. This has all the makings of a dominating 14 point win by Washington, and it could get ugly.

NFL Also Likes: NYJ, SD, N.O.(ML), Oak(+), TB (ML)

10/07/2006 - Saturday morning update:

A rated college pick: Georgia Tech - Loss

In years past we learned to stay away from the Yellow Jackets, because despite being perennial giant killers you never knew which GT team would show up. However, this years version has a more consistent characteristic - they're playing fundamentally solid defense. Especially against the run. GT does have vulnerabilities in the secondary, but Maryland does not have the personnel to take advantage. GT's offense is rush orientated, and they do just enough over the top to keep defenses on their toes. We have two fundamental match-up advantageous favoring the Yellow Jackets: 1) The solid rush offenses is at home vs Maryland's porous run defense, and 2) Maryland likes to establish the run, but GT's defensive strength is in the front 7, and this exceptional unit faces one of the ACC's weaker rush attacks. Maryland is not a good passing team, and when they fall behind they'll be taken out of their game plan. Look for a 21 point Georgia Tech domination.

10/07/2006 

A rated college pick: Auburn - Loss

Big Al says the Arkansas offense will do well to put up 10 points at Auburn. Razorbacks have a freshman at QB, and this is a big SEC conference contest, between two undefeated teams. Look for Tigers to stack the line and force freshman QB Mitch Mustain to beat them over the top. Auburn offense is potent, and if they get a few turnovers this could get real ugly.  Auburn much more seasoned on both sides of the ball; and have dominated Arkansas in recent years. Hogs do not have a strong pass attack, and we're not so concerned about a backdoor cover.  Auburn offense is well balanced, and have been very consistent moving the chains. We're looking at the Tigers putting up 31 to 38 points in this spot; while the razorbacks will do well to reach double digits.

Also Likes: Georgia Tech, LSU (ML), West Virginia, Wake Forest (+), California

10/08/2006

A+ rated NFL pick: New Orleans - Loss

Dale rates New Orleans as his top NFL pick of the week; and the fundamentals support that position. The Saints are not winning with smoke and mirrors - they're for real. They can run the ball, they throw the ball, they're holding onto the ball, and they have big play potential. The offensive line is opening holes, and their protecting QB Brees. On the other side Tampa Bay is in disarray. HC Gruden is a "scheming" coach, he beats you with technique - but he doesn't have the personnel to run intricate schemes. The Bucs already decimated O-line is now without their starting LT for the rest of the year.  The Bucs are starting rookie QB Gradowski in a very hostile venue. A young QB's best friend is a solid offensive line - and the Bucs O-line ranks somewhere near the bottom of the league. On defense Tampa is slow at LB and the secondary; CB Ronde' Barber has been targeted (successfully) mercilessly. Look for New Orleans speed on offense to be the difference here, and the Saints to win by double digits.

Also Likes: San Francisco, Philadelphia, Minnesota

10/01/2006 - We're standing pat with Dallas after learning that Vince Young will start for Tennessee this Sunday. Dales insights are: "on one hand it will provide a lift, but on the other hand it states that our season is over, and that we don't have a chance to win this game."  QB Vince Young is a rookie who came in with a long learning curve for the pro game, and he'll make rookie mistakes; on the other hand this provides a bit more impetus for a back door cover, in that the Titans have effectively acknowledged they're in rebuilding mode, and will keep going for the endzone till the bitter end (as a learning process). That said Dallas should comfortably control the game in the early going on the ground and they should control time of possession. Dallas still enjoys tremendous fundamental match-up advantages on offense (both on the ground and over the top). Tennessee's offensive line has been playing extremely poorly, and they haven't been able to establish a rush attack thus far (ranked in the bottom 25% of the league), so this doesn't bode well for a particularly green rookie getting his first start against a very good defense (Tennessee is now more likely to provide early turnovers). We're going to stand pat on our play and let it ride, because our view is that Dallas now has just as good a chance of scoring an early defensive touchdown as Tennessee does of scoring a late TD. 

9/30/2006 

A rated college pick: Louisiana Monroe - Loss

This line opened at 13.5, and we're kicking ourselves in the ass for not posting it on Sunday night; it moved past the two td mark on Monday - but we still like the Warhawks in this spot. Florida Atlantic is playing their 5th road game in a row, and they've been absolutely pounded by upper tier opposition. They'll be more competitive in the Sun Belt, but not in the conference opener. ULM comes in off a bye, and they have a pretty good offensive line. Look for ULM's offensive line to pound the ball on the ground early and often, and the Owls suspect run defense to wear down late in the game.  Our call is ULM by 21.

A rated college pick: UCLA - WIN

The Bruins lost last week at Washington by 10, but they outplayed the Huskies, both out gaining them and winning the TOP battle. This week UCLA comes home to face a dysfunctional Stanford squad, where there is rampant speculation that HC Walt Harris may be fired before the season is out. And Stanford is still injury depleted on offense. We said last week that Harris's players gave up on him at Pitt, and it looks like they're doing it again at Stanford.  The Cardinal have not been able to stop the run all year, and UCLA can flat out pound the ball on the ground. We have a fundamental match-up advantage, as well as a situation advantage to UCLA. We like the Bruins by 35. 

College picks also likes: Oregon, Penn St., Kent St (ML), WSU (+)

A rated NFL pick: Dallas - WIN

At first I didn't want to touch this game because of all the off field hoopla. But while analyzing league wide statistical metrics it became clear that Dallas enjoys a significant fundamental match-up advantage with their strong power rushing offense vs the porous Tennessee run defense. On the other side of the ball Tennessee is averaging less than 70 ypg rushing, while Dallas is giving up only 86 ypg on the ground - that shapes up to be a long day for Tennessee. Dallas is coming off a bye, and Parcells is a coach who knows how to take advantage of a bye week. Look for Dallas to establish ground control operating out of a two TE set, and WR Terry Glenn to have a big game against DB Reynaldo Hill. Consider that QB Kerry Collins has thrown 7 int's to 2 touchdowns, and we have little concern of a backdoor cover.  Cowboys by 13.

NFL pick also likes: Minnesota (ML), Carolina, Philadelphia (Monday)

A Rated Week 3 Football Picks:

9/22/06   This looks to be a tough week in the NFL. The crew here at Football Forecasters have looked into and debated the upcoming contests somewhat more vigorously than usual; there appear to be a lot of good lines this week. There is only one upcoming NFL play we are all strongly in agreement on, and it looks like a good one (Washington). 

A point of caution on Baltimore this week: Our scorecasting models point to a 16-17 point Baltimore victory this week (over Cleveland). True, the compilation data is only two weeks old, however this spread is the only one we calculated that deviates significantly from the Vegas line (6.5). In addition Cleveland hasn't been playing well, and Baltimore is coming on strong.  So why is the line less than a TD? Everything here points to a strong play on Baltimore, and I can't think of a single reason to like Cleveland; but something about this one spooks me, so personally I'm going to stand down on Baltimore this week. If you really like em, then make your play; however, I'd feel a bit irresponsible not to mention my curious reservations.  I may just be skittish here, but sometimes a winning week is determined as much by the games you play, as the one's you pass on.

9/23/2006 NCAA

A rated Iowa - Loss (backdoor cover - ugh)

Iowa much stronger on both sides of the ball, defense in particular. It looks like Illinois will go with a freshman at QB, which doesn't bode well for the turnover prone Illini. We have a fundamental match-up advantage as Hawkeye's have very good run stuffing unit, and Illinois putting up less than 90 ypg against much weaker competition than Iowa. Hawkeye's can put points on the board, and Illinois has a porous defense. This looks like a 6 TD win to us, we'll lay the points and call for a 30 pt Iowa domination. One thing to be careful of here is a backdoor cover, as the coaches know they are developing a QB, and they'll be throwing for the endzone till the bitter end.

9/23/2006 NCAA

A rated WSU - WIN

Stanford is just pitiful, they've given up.

WSU gets it's starting RB back, and while this team has struggled, it is playing with a measure of vitality. We've never liked Stanford HC Walt Harris, and it looks like his players have tanked it (which we've seen them do before at Pitt). This one will be ugly. The Cougars by 3 TD's. We did consider WSU as an A+ rated play....

Also Likes: Nebraska, Mich. State, Air Force (ML), Texas, Alabama (ML), Tulsa (+), USC

9/24/2006 NFL

A+ rated Washington - WIN

The fundamentals and situation heavily favor offensively balanced Washington. Redskins have very good matchup advantageous with TE Chris Cooley vs Texans safety's, and WR Moss vs poorly regarded CB Robinson. Houston giving up almost 480 yards per game, and teams are having success both on the ground and over the top against the Texans. Both squads off to an 0-2 start. However, Washington is getting RB Clinton Portis back, while Houston loses still more players to injury. Houston can't generate a pass rush, and Washington has a pretty good O-line, Brunell should have a solid game. Texans should be able to put up some points of their own going over the top (CB Shawn Springs is still out), but they won't be able to establish anything on the ground against DC Gregg Williams defense. One of these teams will be 0-3, and we don't think it will be the Redskins. The fundamentals and situation point to Washington... by 10.

Also Likes: Buffalo, NYG (+), Philadelphia, Minnesota (+), Carolina

9/16/2006 NCAA

A rated Boston College - WIN

Eagles in a different class than BYU. We'll lay the TD and call on the Eagles;  who always come to play, to roll up a double digit win. This isn't the spot that the sometimes scrappy Cougars would catch a team off-guard.

NCAA Also Likes: Tennessee, Kansas, Texas, Rutgers, & Wake Forest

9/17/2006 NFL

A rated Baltimore - WIN

Baltimore has a viscous defense. Oakland has a high school offense, and the current Raiders just aren't very tough. Art Shell wants to rely on a power rushing offense, but his offense line just isn't in sync, and they don't have the mindset to move the ball against this defense. Don't see Oakland putting up double digits in this venue. It's a big number to lay, but we're going to bite. Other points to consider is that Baltimore is a top shelf defense that pride in their ability, and will refuse to easily give up the back door cover. Oakland, a team in disarray, coming off a short week and traveling coast-to-coast. Baltimore by 17

9/17/2006 NFL

A rated OVER GB/NO - WIN

Both squads have respectable run stuffing units, and both squads are vulnerable over the top. This home game is important to Favre and the Packers, and they'll come out firing. On the other side there are weakness' in the Packer defense the Saints can exploit. We expect New Orleans will put up 17 to 24, and the Pack to put up 21 to 28 points. It's a low total posted by Vegas, and excellent potential for late game fireworks.

NFL Also Likes: Miami, Green Bay, OVER Mia/Buf, Carolina, Tampa

(posted 9/02/06)

Yes, Kerry Collins will probably start for the Titans, and his late signing does give some pause for concern, but we're not moving off the pick. This is as much a play against the Jets, as it is a play on Tennessee; who we expect will run the ball down NY's throat. We're going to stand pat.

Another play we like is the UNDER on GB/CHI.  Dale's looked at this contest closely and has determined that neither team might reach double digits. This might be a nice under to play to make on a low exposure (1-2% of bankroll)  2-team parlay with another pick.

9/10/2006

A rated Philadelphia - Win

(posted 9/02/06)

Donovan McNabb looks to be in great condition, and perhaps more important, he appears to have a certain intensity about him.  The Eagles defense looks to be improved. The secondary will be much better this year, if the Eagles can get back to putting pressure on the opposing QB with their zone blitz packages. We have Philadelphia as a playoff team, and Houston is simply no match for them in this spot.  Texans are learning new schemes on both sides of the ball... going up against one of the better defenses in the league. Look for TE L.J. Smith to have a big game. We like Philadelphia by 10.

9/10/2006

A+ rated Tennessee - Loss

(posted 8/18/06)

Both Tennessee and NY are perceived as poor teams who are rebuilding. However, the Titans actually began their rebuilding process last year. They have a veteran coach who has taken his team to the superbowl, and Jeff Fisher always has his team ready to play. They feature a starting QB, Billy Volek, who has had some success as an NFL starter, many fans were clamoring for Volek to be the starter last year, and he has a good rapport with WR Drew Bennett. Perhaps the biggest acquisition on offense is free agent center Kevin Mawae (from NY Jets). The players are in the 2nd year of OC Norm Chow's system, and should be more proficient in implementing the system. Add to the mix free agent WR David Givens, and a healthy TE in Ben Troupe and on paper the Titans should field a respectable pass attack. On defense the Titans should also show improvement. The young defensive line played respectably, and they all return, including team sack leader Vanden Bosch. The weakness of the stop unit was the defensive backs; the secondary was raw last year, featuring two DB's in their rookie years. Both projected starting corners, Reynaldo Hill and Pacman Jones, showed promise last season, and should be even stronger after learning the position under fire.  The Jets certainly don't have the kind of pass attack that could overwhelm the young backfield. 

NY is commandeered by first year HC Eric Mangini, who comes to the Jets after only 1 year as the DC for New England. Mangini and new OC Brian Schottenheimer will be calling their first games... on the road. They won't be helped by coming into Tennessee fielding two rookie starters on the offensive line (Journeyman C Trey Teague has been missing practice with a sprained ankle, and we think Mangini will bite the bullet and go with 1st round pick Mangold as the starter).  The NY quarterbacks haven't looked good in camp, and the RB's have not stood out. Perhaps the biggest weakness of the Jets defense is they are implementing a 3-4 scheme, despite having lineman more suited to a 4-3. The Jets linebackers look like they'll work in this system, but there is a major question mark at the point of attack, the NT.  Another major area of concern is the Jets defensive backs, outside of Ty Law, nobody stood out last year - and Law's gone (replaced by perennially injured FA Andre Dyson).

We see TWO major fundamental match-up advantageous for Tennessee in this spot: a major match-up advantage with the Titans pass attack vs. the Jets secondary.  And we also like the match-up of Tennessee's solid rush defense vs the young NY offensive line. Last year the Jets offense averaged 8 points a game on the road!  Finally, we have a situational advantage in that this will be the 1st game road game for a very green team learning new schemes on both sides of the ball.  Tennessee's pre-bye schedule looks daunting, but HC Fisher has a young team and won't get caught looking ahead.  At the time of this posting the Titans are only instilled as a 3 point favorite. We think they'll cruise to an easy double digit victory.  Tennessee by 13.

Tampa Bay discussion:  We considered Tampa for A play rating. Based primarily on the strength of HC Jon Gruden's record when he has two weeks to prepare for an opponent... which is phenomenal (Belichick like). Despite a young QB, we feel like we know what we're going to get with Gruden's squad: a very sophisticated yet conservative offense. We think QB Chris Simms is going to do well in this scheme. We're not sure what to expect from the Baltimore defense, which has the potential to be formidable. Still, all things considered, we kinda like Tampa to win by 7-10 points in this spot. They should be able to move the ball over the top, and Baltimore may find points hard to come by. The UNDER in this contest also looks attractive.  If we end up playing TB it would probably be on a low exposure 2-team parlay, with 1.5% of bankroll (If your not sure what that means see money management article linked on home page).

2006 Cumulative A+ rated play record: 0-1

Return to the NFL Football Picks Home page of Football Forecasters

NFL Football Picks

Home of Free NFL Football Picks & College Football Pick's