NFL Team Reports and Division Previews

by Kurt Schumacher and Dale Sims                                                        Last Update: 08/21/08

Football Forecasters presents our 2008 NFL team reports and division picks.  We use a division based (unit-on-unit match-up analysis) forecasting model to forecast a total win / loss projection for each NFL team. We then use these results to make futures totals predictions, and forecast division winners. Quite often we find the "value" play not what you might expect.  For instance, in our 2003 AFC East report, while the mainstream pundits were predicting the Miami Dolphins to runaway with the East, we forecast that based on schedule dynamics New England was the best play to make - of course the Pats have gone on to win 2 consecutive Superbowls.  Check out our 2008 NFL division reports and team forecasts:

Our season projection win/loss analysis takes a look at which team is most likely to win their division, with specific emphasis on the following criteria:

• Last years unit by unit team statistical analysis

• Off season losses/acquisitions that improve areas of need

• Schedule - opposition strengths, and when you play key opponents. With particular emphasis on division match-ups.

• Owner, GM, head coach, coordinators, and position coaching changes. With particular emphasis on system continuity.

• Projected fundamental unit to unit match-up advantages that can be exploited by a competent game plan.

Our totals projections are heavily weighted to division contests, and unit-on-unit match-up matrix of non-division opponents.  Of course we cannot take into account injuries at the time of these forecasts.  The division weighted win/loss projections typically resemble Vegas' NFL futures totals projections - however, we just about always uncover NFL futures totals football picks worth wagering on.

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